Weather Cover
An ice cream shop takes about 20% less on a cold weekend. A patio bar empties in the rain. A landscaper stops billing in a freeze. Large firms have hedged weather since the late 1990s, on derivatives written for utilities and airlines. Small ones never could, because nobody would write a contract that small.
Weather Cover is a broker for the businesses left out. Describe the weather that costs you money and it finds the contracts that pay when it happens, sizes them against what you actually stand to lose, and tells you how much of that loss the cover really neutralizes.
Cover is priced off Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange listing per-city daily temperature ladders, rainfall, snowfall and hurricane contracts. Market data is public, so quotes need no account.
The ladder, not the bet
A single yes-or-no contract is a bet. A ladder — every temperature bucket for one place on one day — can be shaped to match a loss curve, and that is what separates cover from gambling. A shop that stops selling below 70° buys the rungs below 70°, not one contract at whatever strike happened to be liquid.
Saying where it’s measured
Every contract settles on one specific sensor: Central Park, Chicago Midway, a station code like CLIMIA. The broker parses that out of the contract’s own resolution rules and puts it on every quote.
The distance between that sensor and your front door is real risk, and it is the part most people selling weather hedges leave out. If your cover is measured at an airport eleven miles away, you should have to look at that before you buy.
Honest about the gap
A “Midway high under 70°” contract is a proxy for “nobody sat on my patio.” The gap between them is basis risk. The broker scores it rather than hiding it — decomposing the estimate into how well the contract matches on location, on the physical driver, and on the threshold where the loss actually starts, then multiplying, because the contract only pays on your loss if it matches on all three at once. A loose verdict says so plainly and offers to spread the premium across proxies that miss in different ways.
The premium you spend in a season where the weather cooperated is not a failed trade. It is the price of not carrying the risk, and the product says so. It will not size cover above the loss it protects, and it does not sell forecasts.
Two surfaces over one domain core: a chat broker built with Next.js and the AI
SDK, and a weather command for pulling ladders and pricing cover from a
terminal. Every outcome the chat UI can reach is a tool call, so an agent can do
it too.